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East Key, FL - Southern End, Florida Bay Coastal Forecast

FZUS52 KKEY 152032
CWFKEY

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Florida Keys
National Weather Service Key West FL
432 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Florida Bay, Hawk Channel and Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef
to south of Dry Tortugas, and the extreme southeastern Gulf of
America, including The Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary

Seas are given as significant wave height, which is the average
height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be
more than twice the significant wave height.

Wave Detail will include details about the period and direction
of origin for the highest energy waves. Long-period swells coming
from a different direction than the wind would be included in the
Wave Detail.

GMZ005-160845-
Synopsis for Keys coastal waters from Ocean Reef to Dry Tortugas
432 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Surface high pressure will begin sliding back
eastward as a strong, large surface low pressure system takes
shape across the Midwest. This low pressure system will move into
the northern Great Lakes region on Monday with a trailing front
draped across the western Gulf Basin. In the short term, this will
maintain breezes peaking overnight and lulling during the
afternoon. The aforementioned cold front will sweep through the
Keys late Monday. In its wake expect freshening northwest to
north by early Tuesday. Fresh to strong breezes are becoming
increasingly likely following the front during the middle of next
week.

The Approximate Shoreward Edge of the Gulf Stream as of March 7...

55 NM South of Dry Tortugas Light...on Loggerhead Key.
15 NM South of Cosgrove Shoal Light...off the Marquesas Keys.
7 NM South of Sand Key Light...off Key West.
8 NM South of Looe Key...off Big Pine Key.
10 NM Southeast of Sombrero Key Light...off Marathon.
8 NM Southeast of Alligator Reef Light...off Islamorada.
5 NM Southeast of Molasses Reef Light...off Key Largo.
3 NM Southeast of Carysfort Reef Light...off Ocean Reef.

Gulf Stream Information Courtesy of the National Weather Service in
Key West based on products from NASA SPoRT and RTOFS.

$$

GMZ031-160845-
Florida Bay including Barnes Sound, Blackwater Sound, and
Buttonwood Sound-
432 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

.TONIGHT...Southeast to south winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to
near 15 knots. Bay waters a light to moderate chop, becoming a
moderate chop. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Bay waters
will be rough, and winds will be higher in and around
thunderstorms.
.MONDAY...Southeast to south winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming
southwest. Bay waters a light to moderate chop. A chance of
showers and thunderstorms.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Southwest to west winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming
west to northwest near 15 knots. Bay waters a light to moderate
chop, becoming a moderate chop. Showers likely with a chance of
thunderstorms.
.TUESDAY...Northwest to north winds near 15 knots, becoming north
to northeast 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop, becoming
choppy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...North to northeast winds 15 to 20 knots,
increasing to near 20 knots. Bay waters choppy, becoming rough. A
chance of showers and thunderstorms.
.WEDNESDAY...Northeast winds near 20 knots. Bay waters rough.
Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...North to northeast winds near 20 knots. Bay
waters rough. A chance of showers with a slight chance of
thunderstorms.
.THURSDAY...North to northeast winds near 20 knots, decreasing to
15 to 20 knots. Bay waters rough, becoming choppy. A chance of
showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...North to northeast winds near 20 knots. Bay
waters rough. A slight chance of showers.
.FRIDAY...North winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming north to northeast
around 10 knots. Bay waters choppy, becoming a light chop. A
slight chance of showers.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...North to northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay
waters a light to moderate chop.

$$

GMZ032-035-160845-
Bayside and Gulfside from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge-
Gulf of America from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon
Shoal out to 5 Fathoms-
432 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

.TONIGHT...Southeast to south winds near 15 knots. Seas 1 to
2 feet, except 2 to 3 feet west of the Marquesas Keys. Nearshore
waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Winds and seas will be higher in and around showers and
thunderstorms.
.MONDAY...South winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming south to southwest.
Seas 1 to 2 feet, except 2 to 3 feet west of the Marquesas Keys.
Nearshore waters a light to moderate chop. A chance of showers and
thunderstorms.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Southwest to west winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming
northwest 15 to 20 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. West of the Marquesas
Keys, seas 2 to 3, building to 3 to 4, occasionally to 5 feet.
Nearshore waters a light to moderate chop, becoming choppy.
Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms.
.TUESDAY...North winds near 20 knots, becoming north to northeast
15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. West of
the Marquesas Keys, seas 4 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet,
building to 6 to 7 feet, occasionally to 9 feet. Nearshore waters
rough, becoming choppy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...North to northeast winds near 20 knots. Seas
3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet, except 5 to 6 feet,
occasionally to 8 feet west of the Marquesas Keys. Nearshore
waters rough. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
.WEDNESDAY...Northeast winds near 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet,
occasionally to 6 feet, except 5 to 6 feet, occasionally to
8 feet west of the Marquesas Keys. Nearshore waters rough. A
chance of showers and thunderstorms.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...North to northeast winds near 20 knots. Seas 3
to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet, except 5 to 6 feet,
occasionally to 8 feet west of the Marquesas Keys. Nearshore
waters rough. A slight chance of thunderstorms. A chance of
showers.
.THURSDAY...North to northeast winds near 20 knots, decreasing to
15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet, except
4 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet west of the Marquesas Keys.
Nearshore waters rough, becoming choppy. A chance of showers with
a slight chance of thunderstorms.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...North to northeast winds near 20 knots. Seas 2
to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, except 4 to 6 feet,
occasionally to 8 feet west of the Marquesas Keys. Nearshore
waters rough. A slight chance of showers.
.FRIDAY...North to northeast winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming north
10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally
to 5 feet, except 4 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet west of the
Marquesas Keys. Nearshore waters choppy, becoming light to
moderate chop. A slight chance of showers.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...North to northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas
2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, except 4 to 6 feet,
occasionally to 8 feet west of the Marquesas Keys. Nearshore
waters a light to moderate chop.

$$

GMZ042>044-160845-
Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out to the reef-
Hawk Channel from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile Bridge out
to the reef-
Hawk Channel from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon Shoal
out to the reef-
432 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

.TONIGHT...Southeast to south winds near 15 knots. Seas 2 to
3 feet. Nearshore waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Winds and seas will be higher in and around
showers and thunderstorms.
.MONDAY...Southeast to south winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming
southwest. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Nearshore waters a light to moderate
chop. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Southwest to west winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming
west to northwest 15 to 20 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. West of
Cosgrove Shoal Light, seas building to 3 to 4 feet, occasionally
to 5 feet. Nearshore waters a light to moderate chop, becoming
choppy. Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms.
.TUESDAY...North winds 15 to 20 knots, increasing to near 20 knots.
Seas 1 to 2 feet. West of Cosgrove Shoal Light, seas 3 to 5 feet,
occasionally to 6 feet, building to 5 to 6 feet, occasionally to
8 feet. Nearshore waters choppy, becoming rough. A chance of
showers and thunderstorms.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...North to northeast winds near 20 knots. Seas
2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, except 5 to 6 feet,
occasionally to 8 feet west of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore
waters rough. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
.WEDNESDAY...Northeast winds near 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet,
occasionally to 5 feet, except 4 to 6 feet, occasionally to
8 feet west of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore waters rough.
Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...North to northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas
2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, except 4 to 5 feet,
occasionally to 6 feet west of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore
waters very rough. A chance of showers with a slight chance of
thunderstorms.
.THURSDAY...North to northeast winds near 20 knots, decreasing to 15
to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, except 4
to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet west of Cosgrove Shoal Light.
Nearshore waters rough, becoming choppy. A chance of showers with
a slight chance of thunderstorms.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...North to northeast winds near 20 knots. Seas 2
to 3 feet, except 4 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet west of
Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore waters rough. A slight chance of
showers.
.FRIDAY...North to northeast winds 15 to 20 knots, decreasing to
10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet, except 4 to 5
feet, occasionally to 6 feet west of Cosgrove Shoal Light.
Nearshore waters choppy, becoming a light to moderate chop. A
slight chance of showers.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...North to northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas
2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, except 4 to 5 feet,
occasionally to 6 feet west of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore
waters a light to moderate chop. A slight chance of showers.

$$

GMZ052>055-072>075-160845-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas 20 to 60 NM out-
432 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR INCREASING WINDS...

.TONIGHT...Southeast winds near 15 knots, increasing to southeast
to south 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5
feet. Wave Detail: East 4 feet at 6 seconds. A chance of showers
and thunderstorms.
.MONDAY...South winds near 15 knots, decreasing to 10 to 15
knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave Detail: East to southeast 3 feet at
5 seconds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming west to
northwest 15 to 20 knots late. Seas 1 to 3 feet, building to 2 to
4 feet. Wave Detail: South to southwest 2 feet at 4 seconds and
northeast to east 1 foot at 5 seconds. Showers likely with a
chance of thunderstorms.
.TUESDAY...North winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming north to northeast
20 to 25 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, building
to 4 to 7 feet, occasionally to 9 feet. A chance of showers and
thunderstorms.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...North to northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas
6 to 8 feet, occasionally to 10 feet. Showers likely with a
chance of thunderstorms.
.WEDNESDAY...Northeast winds near 20 knots. Seas 5 to 8 feet,
occasionally to 10 feet. Showers likely with a chance of
thunderstorms.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...North to northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas
6 to 8 feet, occasionally to 10 feet. Showers likely with a
slight chance of thunderstorms.
.THURSDAY...North to northeast winds 20 to 25 knots, decreasing
to near 20 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet, occasionally to 10 feet. A
chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...North to northeast winds near 20 knots. Seas
5 to 8 feet, occasionally to 10 feet. A chance of showers.
.FRIDAY...North to northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to
7 feet, occasionally to 9 feet. A slight chance of showers.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...North to northeast winds near 15 knots. Seas 4 to
6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet. A slight chance of showers.

$$

GMZ033-034-160845-
Gulf of America from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee 20 to 60 NM
out and beyond 5 fathoms-
Gulf of America including Dry Tortugas and Rebecca Shoal Channel-
432 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

.TONIGHT...Southeast to south winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around
2 feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds. A chance of
showers and thunderstorms.
.MONDAY...South to southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to
3 feet. Wave Detail: South to southwest 3 feet at 4 seconds.
Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms.
.MONDAY NIGHT...West winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming northwest to
north 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet.
Wave Detail: Northwest 4 feet at 5 seconds and southwest 2 feet at
4 seconds. Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms.
.TUESDAY...North winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet,
occasionally to 8 feet, building to 5 to 8 feet, occasionally to
10 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...North to northeast winds near 20 knots. Seas
5 to 7 feet, occasionally to 9 feet. A slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms.
.WEDNESDAY...North to northeast winds near 20 knots. Seas 4 to
6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet. A chance of showers and
thunderstorms.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...North to northeast winds near 20 knots. Seas 4
to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet. A chance of showers.
.THURSDAY...North to northeast winds near 20 knots, decreasing to 15
to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet. A slight
chance of showers.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...North to northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas
4 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. A slight chance of showers.
.FRIDAY...North to northeast winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming north
10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally
to 6 feet.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...North to northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas
3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet.

$$


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